After a mere 4 and a half weeks after the culmination of the 2012/2013 Barclays Premier League season, our thoughts are once again thrust towards English football's most prestigious prize. With the unveiling of the fixtures for the coming season, analysts can begin to consider who could be on the move, both up and down. The main contenders for the title have seemingly already been pre-determined (Man City, Man United and possibly Chelsea), and at least one of the promoted sides have been favoured for the drop. The other two are normally decided by the difficulty of certain sides' fixtures at key times in the season. There will be four posts in the series about the recently published fixtures. This first post will outline the critical fixtures, and attempt to make initial conclusions on the title contenders based on the fixtures of the likely protagonists. The second and third posts will be similar in structure, but regarding the battle for the final Champions League spot, and the battle to avoid relegation. (I apologise if you happen to be a mid-table supporter, and thus feel neglected, but you may possibly count yourself lucky not to be involved in the relegation battle). The final post will be an invitation to take part in my yearly Premier League predictions. Having run the competition amongst family and friends for the last two years, I have decided to open it to whomever wished to participate. As a result, I will be attaching a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which includes the full fixture list, along with space to put your predictions down the side. I will explain the details in the later post.
For now, I will continue with my initial analysis of the upcoming Premier League season. Beginning with the title race, having outlined the three widely-acknowledged contenders, it is worth considering their fixtures. By assessing the first 5 fixtures, the fixtures at the busy Christmas period, and the run-in, including looking at the critical fixtures, we can make initial hypotheses about who should be considered favourites for the title. Champions Manchester United, having lost their talismanic manager at the end of last season, should certainly not be written off retaining their title, despite this loss. However, the Red Devils, and David Moyes, have a daunting start to 2013/2014 season. With a tricky away tie at Swansea to kick things off, they then host title rivals Chelsea. This will give the new man a real test of his title-winning credentials, and will perhaps show the extent of the gap left by Sir Alex Ferguson. The fixtures do not get any easier for the champions, with a North West derby at Anfield against historical rivals Liverpool. A quick break at home to Crystal Palace follows this, before the most anticipated game in English league football of recent years, the Manchester Derby, away at Manchester City. A baptism of fire for the former Everton manager, and one I am sure he will need to make a solid start on. A good set of results here will certainly give United a great foundation to build on, but defeats may cost them precious momentum.
City, runners-up in 2013, will be glad to start with a home game, giving them the opportunity to rectify the aberration at the end of last campaign, losing their final home game 2-3 to Norwich City. A visit from last season's under-achievers Newcastle, will certainly not be an easy one however, especially if their slow home start against Southampton last season is anything to go by. Manuel Pellegrini, similarly to David Moyes, will be looking to make a quick start to the campaign after his recent appointment at oil rich City, and with a number of big money signings, will be attempting to solidify his position. Two consecutive games against promoted sides may give the Citizens a chance to accrue some early points, especially in the home game against Hull, before a tricky trip to Stoke, a ground where City have failed to win on any of their previous 4 league fixtures. The Manchester Derby at the Etihad finishes City's opening 5, with the Citizens wanting to avoid the last minute heartbreak of last season. These fixtures perhaps allow City to ease into the season a little more than their rivals, though any slips will instantly see the pressure heaped onto the new man.
The final contenders, Chelsea, begin with a comfortable home tie against promoted Hull City, giving new manager Jose Mourinho a gentle re-introduction to English football. I doubt the 'Special One' will need much time to integrate, and a trip to Old Trafford will certainly bring Chelsea back to earth, giving them their first proper investigation. However, with Mourinho's positive record against United, and with the London club's spending power, this may be their first opportunity to stamp their authority on this season. Another winnable tie at home to last season's relegation threatened Aston Villa follows, before another tough away game against Roberto Martinez's Everton. They round off their opening 5 with a visit from London rivals Fulham. Like City, you would expect Chelsea to obtain a healthy number of points in this period, giving the new man a good chance to bed himself into the club. In this section, City appear to have the easiest of the fixtures, however United will have rid themselves of games against both of their main rivals, which could be a help or a hindrance to their season.
Moving onto the mid-season fixtures, it is important to look at the busiest time of the season to assess how the momentum may swing throughout the season. I will look at the fixtures from December 14th to January 1st, between which there will be 5 games. This is a period that Manchester United typically perform well in, and often base their success upon. However, consistent results often come hand-in-hand with a generous fixture list. United start this period with a winnable tie at Aston Villa, before hosting a tall West Ham side. A further two fortunate fixtures follow these, with consecutive away games at Hull and Norwich, before a difficult home game against Champions League chasing Tottenham. With the exception of the final game, United's fixture list in this critical part of the season could give them the valuable momentum they require. City, in contrast, begin this critical period with two testing visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, sandwiched around a trip to Fulham. A more straight-forward home game against Crystal Palace follows these, with City ending the period with a New Year's Day trip to Swansea, another tough challenge. This period may well end up being the defining feature of City's season, either pushing them towards the title, or potentially wrecking their aspirations. Chelsea's fixtures more resemble those of Man City, as after an initial visit from Crystal Palace, an examination at the hands of Arsenal, Swansea and then Liverpool will give the Blues little respite. Chelsea then begin 2014 with a trip to Southampton, a ground they famously lost at last season, and will be looking to rectify this campaign. In this period, United appear to have the upper hand, with their fixtures being relatively kind. Their rivals both have fixtures against Arsenal, Liverpool and Swansea, making Christmas a particularly stressful one this year.
Ending with the run-ins, Manchester United once again can consider themselves rather fortunate. With their only loseable game being a tasty affair at Goodison Park, which will see David Moyes's return to his old club, United have games against Hull, Norwich and Sunderland before ending with a winnable, but potentially banana-skin tie against Southampton. Certainly an opportunity for the champions to garner some momentum towards the end of the campaign. In contrast, Manchester City, once again, have a relatively tough run in. Kicked off with a trip to Anfield to face Liverpool, City then host last season's over-achievers West Brom, before successive trips to Crystal Palace and then bogey side Everton. A relatively straight-forward final day looks on the cards at home to West Ham, but should it come down to that game, we have seen that nothing looks straight-forward when City are concerned. Finally, Chelsea's run-in probably ranks somewhere in between the two, visiting both Swansea and Liverpool, with a home tie against Sunderland in between. Two expected wins finish Chelsea's season, with Norwich and Cardiff rounding off what Mourinho will hope is a successful return. However, once again, Manchester United appear to have the simplest run-in on paper, though games are rarely played on paper.
I understand that these fixtures are subject to change based on television rights and other competitions, and therefore my predictions may be rendered irrelevant. Based on the fixtures as they have been announced, the analysis tends to suggest that United should be considered initial favourites to retain the title. I also recognise that in all probability, my analysis will prove to be completely wrong. But that is football.
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